Buffalo, NY -- I was discussing the potential of an active 2013 a couple months ago when the global patterns were showing deep cold spells and then high warm patterns early in the warm season. (The stronger the difference in temperatures is over a smaller distance, the greater the chance for active weather.) The atmosphere works quickly to balance itself out.
Tornadic Climatology also shows this year's warm season may be an active 2013. Tornado data since the 1980's in Western New York shows an off and on type trend. For a few years in a row there will be confirmed tornadoes, then the next year there will be 0 tornadoes. This pattern seems to continue.
In 2008 there were 0 tornadoes recorded in Western New York. The next three years were active. 4 tornadoes were confirmed in 2009, 5 tornadoes in 2010, and 2 tornadoes in 2011. Last year there were 0 tornadoes recorded and not even one tornado warning was issued.
Climatology proves this year will be an active season. It has already shown that. A tornado warning was issued just yesterday (Friday) in Chautauqua county. No confirmed tornado, but it's only early May. Usually the local tornado season is greatest from late June into August.