Decision 2010: Cuomo vs. Paladino
BUFFALO, NY - Republican candidate for Governor, Carl Paladino is nine percentage points behind Democrat Andrew Cuomo, according a new scientific poll commissioned by Two On Your Side, the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle and the White Plains Journal News.
The poll shows Cuomo with 49% of the vote. Paladino has 40%. Eight percent said they would vote for another candidate and three percent were still undecided.
There is a 4.2% margin of error.
Survey USA interviewed 1,000 adults in New York State on September 20th and 21st.
Of them, 867 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 572 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election.
Lower-income voters account for all of Cuomo's lead.
The contest is effectively even among middle-income and upper-income voters.
Cuomo leads 2:1 in New York City. Paladino leads 5:3 in Western NY.
The candidates are effectively even in the NYC suburbs and Upstate.
Consistent with SurveyUSA polling in other statewide races: men in 2010 are voting Republican, women in 2010 are voting Democrat; there is a 34-point gender gap for Governor.
Reaction To The Poll:
"On election night there's a big splash when somebody wins and of course Paladino won impressively this year there's no question about," said Erie County Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan, in response to the poll results. "So he (Paladino) is getting what is called in the business a post primary bounce," Lenihan said.
"What we're seeing here is not a bounce for Carl Paladino, it's a continued slow and methodical rise," countered Paladino's Campaign Manager Micheal Caputo.
Caputo says poll results such as this and one released earlier in the day from Quinnipiac University which showed the race to be even tighter raises more than spirits at the Paladino Campaign.
It also raises money.
"Once you're down to single digit differences with a shoo-in candidate like Andrew Cuomo it shocks people and it shakes money loose," Caputo said.
Erie County's Republican Chairman, Nick Langworthy, thinks that if Cuomo has any reservations about a debate, then poll numbers like these will force him to engage in one.
"Rick Lazio didn't debate and it really was a foolish move for his campaign to decide not to do that," Langworthy told WGRZ-TV, in reference to Paladino's stunning landslide victory over the party's endorsed candidate in the GOP primary last week.
"There's no question about one thing about this year," said Lenihan. "Nobody should take anything for granted."
The Andrew Cuomo campaign did not respond to a request for comment on this latest Survey USA poll.
The same poll also measured voter's thoughts in other key New York State races.
In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton's term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, with Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.
Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC but trails elsewhere.
Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out.
Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.
In New York's general election for US Senate, incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer leads Republican Jay Townsend 54% to 33%.
Schumer leads among both men and women, among both young and old, among both whites and minorities.
1 in 4 Republicans cross over to vote for Schumer; Independents favor Schumer by 17 points.
Schumer wins in NYC and its suburbs, leads in WNY, trails upstate.